Adam Isacson

Defense, security, borders, migration, and human rights in Latin America and the United States. May not reflect my employer’s consensus view.

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July 2025

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Paintings by Central American migrant children on a white wall.

Fray Matías de Córdova Human Rights Center in Tapachula, Chiapas, Mexico.

Dispatch from Honduras: Four Things You Need to Know About ICE Deportations—It’s Worse Than Expected

Hello from the road. This update from the Honduras part of our trip is cross-posted from WOLA’s website.

Researchers from WOLA and the Women’s Refugee Commission (WRC) just visited San Pedro Sula, Honduras’s second-largest city. This is where Honduras receives its deported citizens aboard ICE contractor flights (and now some U.S. military flights).

The facility that receives Honduran people deported by air.

We spoke with people who provide services to help reintegrate the deported population, all of whom have had to cut staff and programs because of the Trump administration’s evisceration of USAID and State Department migration programming. We also spoke, briefly, to people who arrived on a deportation flight.

We came away alarmed. Here are four reasons why.

  1. The extent of involuntary family separation is far greater than we expected.

In recent months, the number of Honduran parents who have been seized, detained, and deported without their U.S. citizen children—even when they are willing to be removed with them—appears to total well into the hundreds, and new parents arrive every day.

A facility that receives deported families after they arrive.

ICE has an affirmative obligation to allow parents to reunify with their children before they are deported or make alternative caregiving arrangements for them in the United States. On July 2nd, ICE issued a new version of the policy previously known as the “Parental Interests Directive.” The new guidance substantially weakens ICE’s obligation to help parents facilitate reunification with their children before removal, which raises grave concerns that these involuntary separations are going to increase.

However, even the policy states that parents “will be afforded an opportunity prior to their removal to elect (in writing) to have their dependent remain in the U.S. and make alternative caregiving arrangements if necessary.” Numerous interviews so far have coincided in affirming that this is not happening. 

In some cases, parents report to service providers that they are being removed without even getting a chance to communicate with their families at all. “They want to punish them for entering the United States, and they do it by targeting what they love the most—separating them from their families. It’s not a coincidence;  it’s something that’s been well planned, said a social worker who works with deported families.

Service providers spoke of these parents’ great anguish and mental health crises. “It’s a lie that they’re giving them the choice to bring kids back with them,” one told us. “Every day, women arrive crying, but what can we do? I don’t know how to help.”

From a July 2 ICE directive. What we heard in San Pedro Sula casts doubt on whether this is, in fact, happening.

  1. Inadequate care puts mothers and babies at risk

An issue that caused frustration among service providers was the condition in which breastfeeding mothers, babies, and young children are returned. We repeatedly heard that the food provided is inadequate—often frozen meals, chips, and apples. Children arrive sick, with diarrhea, coughs, and signs of malnutrition. Hygiene is also a serious concern: they aren’t allowed to bathe for days, and mothers don’t receive enough diapers to change their babies regularly. In the days before deportation flights, access to food and water is extremely limited.  When asked about breastfeeding mothers, one provider said: “They arrive with hardly any milk—or milk that looks like water—and this affects the babies’ weight.” As another put it: “It’s not fair that children should be treated like this—taken from the only environment they’ve ever known and subjected to such awful conditions.”

These stories confirm our fears about the suspected treatment of pregnant women and new mothers in ICE detention. Media reports and reports from congressional staff on the conditions inside ICE detention facilities suggest that access to healthcare and adequate nutrition for these women are dangerously low. Our findings from the field confirm that pregnant, breastfeeding, and nursing women as well as the newborn babies are lacking essential care.

  1. Authorities are refusing to recognize trans and non-binary people’s identities in detention.

We came away shocked by the experience of trans and non-binary people in detention. A trans woman who had been living in the United States since 2021 told us that her time in ICE detention was “a nightmare I want to forget.” She was placed in a male detention unit where she was one of three trans women. She said that they were forced to shower with men, who harassed her—especially because she had breast implants—and that guards shouted offensive remarks at them for being trans.

A confiscated property receipt with no instructions for retrieving items. (Researcher’s thumb is covering the individual’s identity.) Here, the items are “2 wallets, 1 bank card, 1 white chain with charm, and 1 cellphone”—surrendered and not returned.

  1. Thousands in Cash and Valuables Unaccounted For

We heard troubling accounts of deported people arriving in Honduras without the cash, cellphones, jewelry, identification cards, and similar valuable items that they had surrendered to ICE or contractor personnel. These migrants are arriving with handwritten receipts that note the items, but with no instructions on how they might retrieve them. For each planeload, there are thousands of dollars’ worth of unreturned cash and valuables. Where are they?

Shoelaces are not returned either.

There is more to tell, and we’ll be visiting other countries on this trip. But we’re already gravely concerned by what we’ve heard.

This is happening with almost no accountability and little public knowledge. Changing that has to begin with finding out about it, which has become almost impossible to do from inside the U.S., the administration continues to restrict oversight and visibility into ICE detention.  WOLA and WRC are working to uncover these harms in one of the only possible remaining ways. We will not let these abuses happen in the dark. 

Back on the Road

National Airport, desolate at 4:30 AM.

Hello from the DC airport, where I’m taking one of today’s first flights out. Over the next 10 days I’ll be in several cities in Mexico and Central America, looking into issues related to migrant detention and deportation.

I look forward to posting here from the road. Common-sense security requires posting about a place after I’ve left the place, so I’ll be reporting on a bit of a delay. I’ll probably also avoid going too deeply into my research findings until I’m back home. We’ll be putting out a quick report when I get back; I’ll at least have a complete draft done by mid-August.

Preparing a trip with multiple destinations, and setting up full days’ agendas in each of those destinations, is a lot of work. Because of that, for the first time ever, I missed a scheduled weekly Border Update, which disappoints me. With trip prep taking most of my days, I would have had to write the Update at night, as often happens when things get busy. Sacrificing many hours of sleep, however, is a really unwise thing to do before embarking on a 10-day, multi-city research trip. So it became evident by Sunday that I would have to skip the Update; the next one will be out on August 8.

Stay tuned for more substantive updates, starting in a couple of days.

Latin America-Related Events in Washington and Online This Week

(Events that I know of, anyway. All times are U.S. Eastern.)

Tuesday, July 15

Wednesday, July 16

Thursday, July 17

  • 3:00-4:00 at csis.org: Is Nearshoring Dead? Mexico in an Age of Tariffs and Reindustrialization (RSVP required).

U.S.-Mexico Border Update: July 11, 2025

With this series of weekly updates, WOLA seeks to cover the most important developments at the U.S.-Mexico border. See past weekly updates here.

Your donation to WOLA is crucial to keeping these paywall-free and ad-free Updates going. Please contribute now and support our work.

This Border Update, which follows a two-week break due to staff travel and a holiday, appears two days late due to production of other content. We will publish another Update on July 18, but due to upcoming work travel and staff downtime, production will remain irregular throughout the summer.

THIS WEEK IN BRIEF:

  • Giant budget bill becomes law: A massive budget measure, signed into law on July 4, provides over $170 billion in new funding for the Trump administration’s border-hardening and mass-deportation programs. It passed narrowly, without a single vote from Democrats who remain divided on how forcefully to prioritize opposition to Trump’s immigration policies. The measure multiplies, between now and 2029, the amount of funding ICE and CBP have available for hiring agents, arresting undocumented people, holding large numbers in detention camps, deporting people by air, installing surveillance technologies, and building border wall segments.
  • “Mass deportation” intensifies further: The tempo of DHS raids and confrontational displays intensified, especially in Los Angeles, amid a growing outcry over racial profiling and agents concealing their identities. The number of people in ICE custody reached new highs, along with the number in custody with no criminal charges. Reports continued to emerge of miserable conditions in detention centers, including a new facility that Florida opened in the Everglades. Immigration judges continue to be fired, allegedly for political reasons. The administration canceled TPS for citizens of Honduras and Nicaragua who have been in the United States for a quarter century. Polling shows a sharp drop in support for the Trump administration’s immigration policies.
  • In the courts: A judge struck down the Trump administration’s suspension of asylum access at the border, but stayed his order pending appeal. A filing revealed that El Salvador’s government does not believe it has custody over Venezuelan men whom the United States has sent to a prison there. Kilmar Abrego Garcia revealed that he was tortured in that prison. A Supreme Court decision cleared the way for the Trump administration to send eight men from other countries to South Sudan. Texas’s draconian immigration law remains suspended after an appeals court decision, and a New Hampshire judge used a class certification to prevent the Trump administration from implementing its attempt to undo birthright citizenship.

THE FULL UPDATE:

Read More

At WOLA’s website: Trump Budget Bill Threatens Migrant Rights and Civil Liberties: Ugly Consequences of a Police State Agenda

(Note that this week’s Border Update is coming, but will be late. I was writing two things at once, and this one came out first.)

The big bill has passed, and all the border-hardening and immigration-raiding we’ve seen from the Trump administration so far is about to multiply, supercharged with more than $170 billion in new resources.

It’s hard to grasp the scale of this, but this new WOLA analysis attempts to visualize it:

  • “One single bill has given the Trump administration more than triple the border wall-building budget that it only obtained last time after fighting Congress to a shutdown.”
  • “The agency now has more than $13 billion in additional funds to spend over the next four years to hire at least 10,000 new agents—more than doubling the deportation force, though recruitment could move slowly—and to purchase vehicles, equipment, software, and similar items.”
  • “ICE’s 2024 detention budget was $3.4 billion, up from $2.9 billion in 2023. The new law will give ICE and its detention contractors an additional $45 billion to spend on detention over the next 4 years and 3 months.”
  • “ICE’s budget for transportation and removal operations in 2024 was $721 million, up from $421 million in 2023. Now, the newly passed bill is lavishing ICE and its transportation contractors with $14.4 billion over the next four years and three months.”
  • “Corporations are about to see a windfall from P.L. 119-21 that exceeds their wildest expectations.”
  • “The large, mostly pro-MAGA federal police forces now being created might come to confront the President’s political adversaries, even as the administration prods the still-apolitical military to follow suit.”

Read the whole thing here.

Below is an expanded version of this memo’s “Body Blow to a Free Society” section—we had to cut it back a bit because it ran long, but these quotes are super alarming.

The warnings from journalists and scholars are coming rapidly.

  • “That new normal may come as a shock to Americans unused to a federal national police force operating inside the country,” wrote CNN’s Zachary B. Wolf. “The megabill Trump signed last week will elevate ICE in the American consciousness and on American streets.”
  • “We’re seeing other clues that police-state tactics are intensifying in America,” Andrea Pitzer, author of a history of concentration camps, wrote at MSNBC. “Masked agents in unmarked cars or without warrants who refuse to show IDs are sweeping people off the street. Some who vanish reemerge; others have been effectively disappeared.”
  • “The LA example looks to be a prototypical case,” warned Josh Marshall of Talking Points Memo. “ICE orders a wildly militarized and aggressive series of raids. That triggers fairly spontaneous and overwhelmingly peaceful protests. In response, the president orders in the federalized state National Guard and then the Marines. In every case, we can see a ratcheting process in which ICE’s actions create a climate of protest or disorder or simply disagreement which prompts newly aggressive actions or assertions of power.”
  • “The Republicans just passed essentially something to create this partisan political police force that reports to the president that is unprecedented and completely out of character for any democracy,” Democratic strategist Simon Rosenberg told Sargent of the New Republic.
  • ICE’s funding increase is “enough to pay for the kind of social and demographic transformation of the United States that immigration hard-liners have long fantasized about achieving,” Nick Miroff wrote at the Atlantic.
  • “I fear that Congress just passed legislation hastening our transformation toward a federal police state unlike anything we’ve ever seen in our history,” Graff wrote in his newsletter.
  • “I thought last year that the USA was somewhat protected against any similar coercive authoritarian takeover by its federal structure, given state and local government rights to control most U.S. police powers,” wrote Harvard government and sociology professor Theda Skocpol. “But now I see that the Miller-Trump ethno-authoritarians have figured out a devilishly clever workaround… The Miller-Trumpites are not interested only in rounding up undocumented immigrants. They will step up using ICE and DOJ enforcements to harass Democrats, citizen critics, and subvert future elections if they can. This is the key story unfolding right now.”

“The Worst of the Worst”… and a Lot of Other People, Apparently, Held at Guantánamo

The July 8 Department of Homeland Security (DHS) release screenshotted on the left lists 26 people (which I guess is “almost 30?”) with criminal convictions who are being held at the Guantánamo Bay naval base/prison.

But what about the other 46 people who CBS News reported as held at Guantánamo this week?

Big Jump in ICE Removal Flights

TOTAL DEPORTATION SUMMARY:
Total Deportations June: 209 (Includes 10 military and 199 non-military) (pages 13,25,26,27).
- January 21-31: 44 (includes 8 military)
- January Total: 109 (includes 8 military)
- February Total: 126 (includes 19 military)
- March Total: 134 (includes 8 military)
- April Total: 125 (includes 1 military from Guantanamo to El Salvador)
- May Total: 190 (includes 4 military)
- June Total: 209 (includes 10 military)

The above is from Tom Cartwright’s latest monthly report on Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) deportation flights, covering June.

It shows a 63 percent increase in ICE deportation flights in June, compared to the February-April average. Cartwright noted, “In June there were 209 removal flights, the highest level since I started recording in January 2020.”

And this is set to multiply: in the bill President Trump signed on July 4, Congress gave ICE $14.4 billion for aerial deportations over the next 4 years. In 2024, ICE had a “transportation and removal operations” budget of just $721.4 million (that is, “$0.72 billion”; see page 631 here).

Table showing that amount in 2024 appropriations bill.

The Trump Administration is Deporting a Quarter of Mexican Citizens to Mexico’s Southernmost States

Data Table

Here are the Mexican states to which the United States has deported Mexican citizens, according to statistics from the government of Mexico.

Two things are notable here:

  1. Deportations have been fewer than during the Biden and “Trump 45” years. That’s despite the Trump administration increasing the number of people being massively and indiscriminately removed from the U.S. interior. That increase has been smaller than the drop in Mexican citizens are being apprehended at the U.S.-Mexico border right now, during the sharp current lull in U.S.-bound migration.

    In May 2025, Customs and Border Protection (CBP) encountered Mexican citizens 9,695 times at the border, which is way down from 59,455 in May 2024, 55,405 in May 2023, 77,453 in May 2022, and 70,874 in May 2021.

    Until Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) gets flooded with dozens of billions of dollars in new resources from the big ugly bill that Congress just passed, the agency has a smaller pool of people to deport because its capacity to seize people in the U.S. interior (as opposed to recent border arrivals) has been limited.

    A July 5 Washington Post analysis explained this further, pointing out how Mexico has been bracing for far more deportees than it has received.

  2. Aerial deportations to Mexico’s southernmost states have been growing fast. Rather than deport them at the land border, the Trump administration has been flying some deportees as far into Mexico as it possibly can: into the states of Chiapas and Tabasco, which border Guatemala. These long-distance Mexico interior flights seek to discourage deported migrants from attempting to cross again, as they would require individuals to pay about $150 for a long bus ride back north.

    A small number of planes took migrants to Villahermosa, Tabasco, during the late Trump and early Biden administrations, but those flights had stopped by September 2021. They started again in February 2025, adding Tapachula, Chiapas as a second southern-border destination.

    Those far-south flights appear in red on the chart above. By April they accounted for 35 percent of all U.S. deportations into Mexico (3,803 of 10,742 people), a share that fell to 23 percent in May (3,141 of 13,810 people) as deportations into Tapachula dropped somewhat. Between March and May, the Trump administration sent one-quarter (25%) of deported Mexican citizens to Chiapas or Tabasco. Mexico has not yet provided data for June.

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.