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2020 United States Senate election in South Carolina

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2020 United States Senate election in South Carolina

 2014
November 3, 2020
2026 
Turnout72.1% Increase
 
Nominee Lindsey Graham Jaime Harrison
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 1,369,137 1,110,828
Percentage 54.44% 44.17%

Graham:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Harrison:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:      40–50%      No data

US Senator before election

Lindsey Graham
Republican

Elected US Senator

Lindsey Graham
Republican

The 2020 United States Senate election in South Carolina was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of South Carolina. Republican incumbent Lindsey Graham won re-election to a fourth term, defeating Democratic nominee Jaime Harrison. Primary elections were held on June 9, 2020.[1]

Despite forecasting throughout the last few months of the race showing a very close race as well as Harrison having record fundraising numbers, Graham defeated Harrison by 54.4% to 44.2% and a margin of 10.2% in the November 3, 2020, general election. Harrison slightly outperformed Democratic nominee Joe Biden in the concurrent presidential election, who lost to President Donald Trump by 11.7% in South Carolina.[2]

Republican primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]
  • Dwayne “Duke” Buckner, attorney and owner of Buckner Law Firm located in Walterboro[4]
  • Michael J. LaPierre, businessman[5]
  • Joe Reynolds, chief engineer in the US Merchant Marine[6]

Withdrew

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Lindsey Graham

Polling

[edit]
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Lindsey
Graham
Other Undecided
Change Research[22] June 11–14, 2019 1,183 (LV) ± 2.9% 70% 4%[b] 26%
Hypothetical polling

with Generic Republican

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Lindsey
Graham
Generic
Republican
Other
Change Research[22] June 11–14, 2019 1,183 (LV) ± 2.9% 79% 19% 2%[c]

Results

[edit]
Results by county:
  40–50% Graham
  50–60% Graham
  60–70% Graham
  70–80% Graham
  80–90% Graham
Republican primary results[23]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Lindsey Graham (incumbent) 317,512 67.69%
Republican Michael LaPierre 79,932 17.04%
Republican Joe Reynolds 43,029 9.17%
Republican Dwayne "Duke" Buckner 28,570 6.09%
Total votes 469,043 100.00%

Democratic primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]

Withdrawn

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]

Other candidates

[edit]

Libertarian Party

[edit]

General election write-in candidate

[edit]

Withdrawn

[edit]

Constitution Party

[edit]

Independents

[edit]

Withdrawn

[edit]

General election

[edit]

Predictions

[edit]
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[64] Tossup October 29, 2020
Inside Elections[65] Tilt R October 28, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[66] Lean R November 2, 2020
Daily Kos[67] Lean R October 30, 2020
Politico[68] Lean R November 2, 2020
RCP[69] Tossup October 23, 2020
DDHQ[70] Lean R November 3, 2020
538[71] Likely R November 2, 2020
Economist[72] Lean R November 2, 2020

Advertisements

[edit]

Jaime Harrison ran a number of ads attempting to attract conservative voters from Lindsey Graham by elevating Constitution Party candidate Bill Bledsoe as "too conservative—but in doing so, the would-be attack ad offers up right-wing voters a laundry list of things to like about him". Bledsoe endorsed Graham after withdrawing from the race, but his name remained on the ballot. He criticized the ads as fraudulent.[73]

Meanwhile, Graham ran ads attempting to brand Harrison as a diehard liberal while connecting him with Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer.[74]

Post-primary endorsements

[edit]
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Lindsey
Graham (R)
Jaime
Harrison (D)
Other /
Undecided
0ptimus[83] October 31 – November 2, 2020 817 (LV) ± 3.9% 51% 41% 7%[d]
Data For Progress[84] October 27 – November 1, 2020 1,121 (LV) ± 2.9% 49% 46% 5%[e]
Swayable[85][f] October 23 – November 1, 2020 416 (LV) ± 7.5% 46% 52% 2%[g]
Morning Consult[86] October 22–31, 2020 904 (LV) ± 3% 46% 44%
Data for Progress[87] October 22–27, 2020 1,196 (LV) ± 2.8% 46% 46% 8%[h]
Starboard Communications[88] October 26, 2020 800 (LV) 52% 43% 6%[i]
East Carolina University[89] October 24–25, 2020 763 (LV) ± 4.1% 49% 47% 3%[j]
Morning Consult[86] October 11–20, 2020 926 (LV) ± 3.2% 45% 47%
Brilliant Corners Research & Strategies (D)[90][A] October 11–16, 2020 525 (LV) ± 4.6% 45% 47% 8%[k]
Siena College/NYT Upshot[91] October 9–14, 2020 605 (LV) ± 3.5% 46% 40% 14%[l]
Data for Progress[92] October 8–11, 2020 801 (LV) ± 3.5% 46% 47% 7%[m]
Morning Consult[93] October 2–11, 2020 903 (LV) ± 3% 48% 42%
ALG Research (D)[94][B] September 29 – October 5, 2020 711 (LV) 46% 46% 8%[n]
GBAO Strategies (D)[95][C] September 24–28, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 47% 48% 3%[o]
Data for Progress (D)[96] September 23–28, 2020 824 (LV) ± 3.4% 45%[p] 44% 11%[q]
47%[r] 46% 7%[s]
Quinnipiac University[97] September 23–27, 2020 1,123 (LV) ± 2.9% 48% 48% 3%[t]
YouGov[98] September 22–25, 2020 1,080 (LV) ± 3.8% 45% 44% 11%[u]
Brilliant Corners Research & Strategies (D)[99][A] September 21–24, 2020 608 (LV) ± 4% 43% 45% 13%[v]
Morning Consult[100] September 11–20, 2020 764 (LV) ± (3% – 4%) 46%[w] 45% 9%
Morning Consult[93] September 8–17, 2020 782 (LV)[x] ± (2% – 4%) 45%[w] 46%
Quinnipiac University[101] September 10–14, 2020 969 (LV) ± 3.2% 48% 48% 3%[t]
Morning Consult[102] September 2–11, 2020 ~764 (LV) ± (3%–4%) 44% 46%
Morning Consult[102] August 23 – September 1, 2020 ~764 (LV) ± (3%–4%) 46% 43%
Morning Consult[102] August 13–22, 2020 ~764 (LV) ± (3%–4%) 45% 42%
Morning Consult[102] August 3–12, 2020 ~764 (LV) ± (3%–4%) 45% 45%
Quinnipiac University[103] July 30 – August 3, 2020 914 (RV) ± 3.2% 44% 44% 12%[y]
Morning Consult[104] July 24 – August 2, 2020 741 (LV) ± 4.0% 44%[z] 43% 12%[aa]
Morning Consult[102] July 23 – August 1, 2020 ~764 (LV) ± (3%–4%) 44% 43%
Public Policy Polling (D)[105][D] July 30–31, 2020 1,117 (V) ± 3.0% 47% 44% 8%[ab]
Morning Consult[102] July 13–22, 2020 ~764 (LV) ± (3%–4%) 46% 42%
ALG Research (D)[106][B] July 15–20, 2020 591 (LV) 49% 45% 6%[ac]
Brilliant Corners Research & Strategies (D)[107][A] July 13–19, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 43% 41% 16%[ad]
Gravis Marketing[108] July 17, 2020 604 (LV) ± 4.0% 48% 41% 10%
Civiqs/Daily Kos[109] May 23–26, 2020 591 (RV) ± 4.5% 42% 42% 16%[ae]
Brilliant Corners Research & Strategies (D)[110][A] March 3–11, 2020 804 (LV) ± 3.8% 47% 43% 9%
NBC News/Marist[111] February 18–21, 2020 2,382 (RV) ± 2.6% 54% 37% 9%
East Carolina University[112] January 31 – February 2, 2020 1,756 (RV) ± 2.7% 51% 38% 11%
Change Research[113] December 6–11, 2019 998 (LV) ± 3.1% 47% 45% 9%
Benchmark Research (R)[114][E] October 15–21, 2019 450 (RV) ± 4.2% 53% 30% 18%
Change Research (D)[115][F] September 17–21, 2019 809 (LV) ± 3.4% 50% 43% 7%
Change Research[116] June 11–14, 2019 2,312 (RV) ± 2.0% 52% 35% 13%
WPA Intelligence (R)[117][G] March 11–13, 2019 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 55% 32% 12%
Hypothetical polling

with generic Democrat

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Lindsey
Graham (R)
Generic
Democrat
Other /
Undecided
Change Research[116] June 11–14, 2019 2,312 (RV) ± 2.0% 51% 36% 12%

on whether Lindsey Graham deserves to be re-elected

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Yes No Other /
Undecided
Change Research/Post and Courier[113] December 6–11, 2019 998 (LV)[af] ± 3.1% 37% 53% 10%
Emerson College[118] Feb 28 – March 2, 2019 755 (RV) ± 3.5% 47% 52% 1%

with Generic Republican and Generic Democrat

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Generic
Republican
Generic
Democrat
Other /
Undecided
Quinnipiac University[97] September 23–27, 2020 1,123 (LV) ± 2.9% 49% 44% 6%[ag]
Quinnipiac University[119] September 10–14, 2020 969 (LV) ± 3.2% 52% 44% 5%[ah]

Fundraising

[edit]

In the first quarter of 2020, Harrison outraised Graham, $7.3 million to $5.5 million, but Graham had the lead in cash on hand, with $12 million compared with Harrison's $8 million.[120]

In the third quarter of 2020, Harrison raised $57 million, the largest quarterly total by a US Senate candidate ever, breaking Beto O'Rourke's record in the 2018 Texas election.[121] He had also raised the most ever by a US Senate candidate, beating another of O'Rourke's records.[122]

Campaign finance reports as of December 31, 2020
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Lindsey Graham (R) $112,292,175 $102,195,708 $12,491,457
Jaime Harrison (D) $132,685,669 $132,350,242 $335,426
Source: Federal Election Commission[123]

Debates

[edit]
2020 United States senate election in South Carolina debates
 No.Date & TimeHostLocationModeratorParticipants
Key:
 P  Participant.    N  Non-invitee.  
Republican Democratic
United States senator
Lindsey Graham
Former SCDP chairman
Jaime Harrison
  1  
October 3, 2020
8:00 p.m. EDT
Judi Gatson
P P

Results

[edit]
United States Senate election in South Carolina, 2020[124][2]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Lindsey Graham (incumbent) 1,369,137 54.44% +0.17%
Democratic Jaime Harrison 1,110,828 44.17% +5.39%
Constitution Bill Bledsoe 32,845 1.30% N/A
Write-in 2,294 0.09% -0.29%
Total votes 2,515,104 100.00%
Republican hold

By county

[edit]

By congressional district

[edit]

Graham won six of seven congressional districts.[125]

District Graham Harrison Representative
1st 52% 46% Joe Cunningham
Nancy Mace
2nd 55% 44% Joe Wilson
3rd 67% 31% Jeff Duncan
4th 59% 40% William Timmons
5th 56% 42% Ralph Norman
6th 31% 68% Jim Clyburn
7th 58% 41% Tom Rice

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]

Partisan clients

  1. 1 2 3 4 This poll was sponsored by Harrison's campaign
  2. 1 2 This poll's sponsor, Lindsey Must Go, is a PAC opposing Lindsey Graham.
  3. Poll sponsored by the DSCC, which has endorsed Jaime Harrison's campaign for the 2020 US Senate election in South Carolina before this poll's sampling period.
  4. This poll's sponsor, Giffords, had endorsed Harrison prior to the sampling period
  5. Poll sponsor is a Security in Strength PAC, a super PAC that supported Lindsey Graham during this poll's sampling period.
  6. Poll sponsor, Collective PAC, had endorsed Harrison prior to this poll's sampling period.
  7. Poll sponsored by Conservatives for Clean Energy

Voter samples

  1. 1 2 3 4 5 6 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. Warren with 3%; Kandies with 1%; Burns, Hill, Reynolds and Wilson with 0%
  3. Would not vote with 2%
  4. "Third party candidate" with 2%; "Refused" with 0%; Undecided with 6%
  5. Bledsoe (C) with 4%; "Other candidate/write-in" with 1%
  6. Archived November 13, 2020, at the Wayback Machine
  7. Bledsoe (C) with 2%
  8. Bledsoe (C) with 3%; "Other candidate or write-in" with 0%; Undecided with 5%
  9. Bledsoe (C) and Undecided with 3%
  10. "Refused" with 1%; Did/would not vote with 0%; Undecided with 2%
  11. Bledsoe (C) with 3%; "Other" with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 5%
  12. Bledsoe (C) with 4%; would not vote with 2%; "Someone else" with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 8%
  13. "Write-in candidate" with 1%; Undecided with 6%
  14. Bledsoe (C) with 3%; Undecided with 5%
  15. Bledsoe (C) with 3%
  16. Standard VI response
  17. Bledsoe (C) with 2%; Undecided with 9%
  18. If the only candidates were Graham and Harrison
  19. Undecided with 7%
  20. 1 2 "Someone else" with 0%; Undecided with 3%
  21. "Someone else" with 2%; Undecided with 9%
  22. Bledsoe (C) with 5%; "Other" with 1%; Undecided with 7%
  23. 1 2 Overlapping sample with the previous Morning Consult poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  24. Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  25. Undecided with 2%; would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 9%
  26. Overlapping sample with the previous Morning Consult poll, but more information available regarding sample size and topline numbers
  27. "Someone else" with 4%; Undecided with 8%
  28. Undecided with 8%
  29. "Other" with 1%; Undecided with 5%
  30. Dunham (L) with 4%; Bledsoe (C) with 3%; Other with 1%; Undecided with 8%
  31. "Someone else" with 10%; Undecided with 6%
  32. Likely primary voters
  33. Undecided with 6%
  34. Undecided with 5%

References

[edit]
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  95. @MadelainePisani (October 8, 2020). "First in @njhotline: An internal @dscc poll by @GBAOStrategies found a tight race in #SCsen --> @harrisonjaime (D): 48% @LindseyGrahamSC (R): 47% Bill Bledsoe*: 3% Trump: 49% Biden: 44% (Sept. 24-28; 800 LVs; +/-3.5%) *Bledsoe has dropped out and endorsed Graham since poll" (Tweet) via Twitter.
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Further reading

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Official campaign websites